CERTAIN Program: Logic Model for System Level Planning and Evaluation of Innovative Education Delivery and Dissemination (preprint)

Background: CERTAIN (Checklist for Early Recognition and Treatment of Acute Illness and iNjury) has been shown to improve critical care process and patient outcomes in international ICUs with variable resources. Methods CERTAIN education program derived from this approach is designed, promoted, and implemented following the Logic model. Through the roadmap of the Logic model, we presented a dynamic, longitudinal implementation framework that had sufficient rigor yet offers flexibility to reach the need of the existing and emerging diversified medical education projects. Results Using the Logic model, the delivery of the CERTAIN education program is optimized to deliver relevant education content in various environments. During the COVID-19 outbreak, the implementational framework demonstrated that it could serve as an excellent template for effective response to global pandemics. Conclusions The Logical model is useful as a facilitation tool for planning and evaluating innovative education delivery and dissemination. The CERTAIN program provided an example for other continuous professional education projects.

Association of Obesity with COVID-19 Severity and Mortality: A Systemic Review and Meta-Regression (preprint)

Objective: To estimate the association of obesity with severity (defined as use of invasive mechanical ventilation or intensive care unit admission) and all-cause mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Patients and Methods: A systematic search was conducted from inception of COVID-19 pandemic through January 31st, 2021 for full-length articles focusing on the association of increased BMI/ Obesity and outcome in COVID-19 patients with help of various databases including Medline (PubMed), Embase, Science Web, and Cochrane Central Controlled Trials Registry. Preprint servers such as BioRxiv, MedRxiv, ChemRxiv, and SSRN were also scanned. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines were used for study selection and data extraction. The severity in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, such as requirement of invasive mechanical ventilation and intensive care unit admission with high BMI/ Obesity was the chief outcome. While all-cause mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients with high BMI/ Obesity was the secondary outcome. Results: A total of 576,784 patients from 100 studies were included in this meta-analysis. Being obese was associated with increased risk of severe disease (RR=1.46, 95% CI 1.34-1.60, p<0.001, I2 = 92 %). Similarly, high mortality was observed in obese patients with COVID-19 disease (RR=1.12, 95% CI 1.06-1.19, p<0.001, I2 = 88%). In a multivariate meta-regression on severity outcome, the covariate of female gender, pulmonary disease, diabetes, older age, cardiovascular diseases, and hypertension was found to be significant and explained R2= 50% of the between-study heterogeneity for severity. Similarly, for mortality outcome, covariate of female gender, proportion of pulmonary disease, diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular diseases were significant, these covariates collectively explained R2=53% of the between-study variability for mortality. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that obesity is significantly associated with increased severity and higher mortality among COVID-19 patients. Therefore, the inclusion of obesity or its surrogate body mass index in prognostic scores and streamlining the management strategy and treatment guidelines to account for the impact of obesity in patient care management is recommended.

A Meta-analysis of Mortality, Need for ICU admission, Use of Mechanical Ventilation and Adverse Effects with Ivermectin Use in COVID-19 Patients (preprint)

Importance/Background: Despite the global healthcare's exhaustive efforts to treat COVID-19, we still do not have an effective cure for it. Repurposing Ivermectin, a known antiparasitic agent, for treating COVID-19 has demonstrated positive results in several studies. We aim to evaluate the benefit and risk of Ivermectin in COVID-19. Methods: We conducted a systematic search for full-text manuscripts published from February 1, 2020 to March 27, 2021 that focused on efficacy and safety of Ivermectin therapy against COVID-19. The primary outcomes were overall mortality, need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission; secondary outcomes were - adverse effects, need for mechanical ventilation. Random-effects models were used for all analysis. Results: We included a total of 38 studies (n=15,002) in the qualitative analysis (Mortality N=28, ICU admission= 8, Mechanical Ventilation= 10, Adverse events=28) and out of these, 30 studies (n=11,291) were included in the quantitative analysis (Mortality N=22, ICU admission= 5, Mechanical Ventilation= 9, Adverse events=17). In the mortality meta-analysis, odds of death were lower in the Ivermectin-arm compared to the non-Ivermectin arm. (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.22-0.70; I2=81%). Subgroup analysis of 12 randomized controlled trials with severity-based data showed mortality benefit overall (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.15-0.72; I2=53%) and in the mild/moderate sub-group (OR 0.10, 95% CI 0.03-0.33; I2=0%). Benefit of Ivermectin in decreasing; the need for ICU admission (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.17-1.37; I2=59%) and mechanical ventilation (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.40-1.04; I2=17%) was not significant. The quantitative analysis of adverse effects with Ivermectin use was inconclusive (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.64-1.33; I2=14%). Conclusion: Our meta-analysis suggests that Ivermectin could be an effective adjuvant therapy in reducing mortality, particularly in patients with mild-moderate clinical presentation of COVID-19. Trends of decreased need for ICU admissions and mechanical ventilation were observed but were not significant. The analysis for adverse effects was inconclusive.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Critically ill Mechanically Ventilated COVID-19 Patients Receiving interleukin-6 Receptor Antagonists and/or Corticosteroid Therapy, the INTERACT study: A Multicenter International Observational Study (preprint)

ObjectivesThe interest in interleukin-6 receptor antagonists (IL-6RA) and steroids have increased recently due to their potential role as immunomodulatory effect in critically ill coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The magnitude of this therapy in subgroups of patients with invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) remains to be fully clarified. We compared the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients requiring iMV, and receiving IL-6RA and steroids with different steroids regimens. DesignInternational, multicenter, observational study derived from Viral Infection and Respiratory Illness University Study registry and conducted through Discovery Network, Society of Critical Care Medicine. Marginal structural modeling was used to adjust time-dependent confounders; observations were weighted using inverse probability of treatment weight. A sensitivity analysis was conducted for target trial design. Setting168 hospitals, 16 countries. PatientsCovid-19 ICU patients ([≥]18 years) requiring MV between March 01,2020, and January 10,2021. InterventionNone. Measurements and Main ResultsOf 860 patients met eligibility criteria, 589 received steroids, 170 IL-6RA, and 101 combinations; groups were balanced after adjustment. Median daily steroid dose was 7.5 mg dexamethasone or equivalent (IQR:6-14 mg); 80.8% and 19.2% received low-dose and high-dose steroids, respectively. The median C-reactive protein level was >75 mg/L in majority of our cohort. The use of IL-6R antagonists alone or in combination was not associated with a significant difference in ventilator-free days (VFD) compared to steroids alone with different steroids regimens (adjusted incidence rate ratio [95% CI]): IL-6R antagonists (1.12 [0.88,1.4]), combination (0.83 [0.6,1.14]). Patients treated with low or high-dose steroids had non-significant differences in VFD compared to IL-6RA ({beta}=0.62, 95% CI -1.54,2.78 for low-dose steroid; {beta}=-1.19, 95% CI -3.85,1.47 for high-dose steroid). There was no difference in 28-day mortality and hospital mortality with IL-6RA alone or in combination compared to steroids alone (28-day mortality adjusted odds ratio [95% CI]): IL-6RA (0.68[0.44,1.07]), combination (1.07[0.67,1.70]). Sensitivity analysis findings were consistent with primary analysis. Liver dysfunction was higher in IL-6RA (p=0.04) while rate of bacteremia did not differ among groups. ConclusionsIn adult ICU COVID-19 patients on iMV, we found no difference in outcomes between those who received IL-6RA, steroids, or combination therapy and those who received IL-6RA or low-or high-dose steroids. Further randomized trials are needed to enhance our understanding for IL-6RA safety with different steroids regimen and the magnitude of benefit in those subgroups of patients.

Mortality and Severity in COVID-19 Patients on ACEIs & ARBs - A Meta-Regression Analysis (preprint)

Purpose: The primary objective of this review is to examine studies reporting association of mortality in COVID-19 patients with whether they were on Angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and Angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs). A secondary objective is to similarly access associations with higher severity of the disease in COVID-19 patients. Materials and Methods: We searched multiple COVID-19 databases (WHO, CDC, LIT-COVID) for randomized trials and longitudinal studies from all over the world reporting mortality and severity published before January 18th, 2021. Meta-analyses were performed using 53 studies for mortality outcome and 43 for the severity outcome. Mantel-Haenszel odds ratios were generated to describe overall effect size using random effect models. To account for between study results variations, multivariate meta-Regression was performed with preselected covariates using maximum likelihood method for both the mortality and severity models. Result: Our findings showed that the use of ACEIs/ARBs did not significantly influence either mortality (OR=1.16 95% CI 0.94 to 1.44, p= 0.15, I2 = 93.2%) or severity (OR=1.18, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.48 p= 0.15, I2 = 91.1%) in comparison to not being on ACEIs/ARBs in COVID-19 positive patients. Multivariate meta-regression for the mortality model demonstrated that 36% of between study variations could be explained by differences in age, gender, and proportion of heart diseases in the study samples. Multivariate meta-regression for the severity model demonstrated that 8% of between study variations could be explained by differences in age, proportion of diabetes, heart disease and study country in the study samples. Conclusion: We found no association of mortality or severity in COVID-19 patients taking ACEIs/ARBs.

Healthcare disparities among anticoagulation therapies for severe COVID-19 patients in the multi-site VIRUS registry (preprint)

COVID-19 patients are at an increased risk of thrombosis and various anticoagulants are being used in patient management without an established standard-of-care. Here, we analyze hospitalized and ICU patient outcomes from the Viral Infection and Respiratory illness Universal Study (VIRUS) registry. We find that severe COVID patients administered unfractionated heparin but not enoxaparin have a higher mortality-rate (311 deceased patients out of 760 total patients = 41%) compared to patients administered enoxaparin but not unfractionated heparin (214 deceased patients out of 1,432 total patients = 15%), presenting a risk ratio of 2.74 (95% C.I.: [2.35, 3.18]; p-value: 1.4e-41). This difference persists even after balancing on a number of covariates including: demographics, comorbidities, admission diagnoses, and method of oxygenation, with an amplified mortality rate of 39% (215 of 555) for unfractionated heparin vs. 23% (119 of 522) for enoxaparin, presenting a risk ratio of 1.70 (95% C.I.: [1.40, 2.05]; p-value: 2.5e-7). In these balanced cohorts, a number of complications occurred at an elevated rate for patients administered unfractionated heparin compared to those administered enoxaparin, including acute kidney injury (227 of 642 [35%] vs. 156 of 608 [26%] respectively, adjusted p-value 0.0019), acute cardiac injury (40 of 642 [6.2%] vs. 15 of 608 [2.5%] respectively, adjusted p-value 0.01), septic shock (118 of 642 [18%] vs. 73 of 608 [12%] respectively, adjusted p-value 0.01), and anemia (81 of 642 [13%] vs. 46 of 608 [7.6%] respectively, adjusted p-value 0.02). Furthermore, a higher percentage of Black/African American COVID patients (375 of 1,203 [31%]) were noted to receive unfractionated heparin compared to White/Caucasian COVID patients (595 of 2,488 [24%]), for a risk ratio of 1.3 (95% C.I.: [1.17, 1.45], adjusted p-value: 1.6e-5). After balancing upon available clinical covariates, this difference in anticoagulant use remained statistically significant (272 of 959 [28%] for Black/African American vs. 213 of 959 [22%] for White/Caucasian, adjusted p-value: 0.01, relative risk: 1.28, 95% C.I.: [1.09, 1.49]). While retrospective studies cannot suggest any causality, these findings motivate the need for follow-up prospective research in order to elucidate potential socioeconomic, racial, or other disparities underlying the use of anticoagulants to treat severe COVID patients.

Plasma IL-6 Levels following Corticosteroid Therapy as an Indicator of ICU Length of Stay in Critically ill COVID-19 Patients (preprint)

Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions and mortality in severe COVID-19 patients are driven by "cytokine storms" and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Interim clinical trial results suggest that the corticosteroid dexamethasone displays superior 28-day survival in severe COVID-19 patients requiring ventilation or oxygen. Among 16 patients with plasma IL-6 measurement post-corticosteroid administration, a higher proportion of patients with an IL-6 value over 10 pg/mL have worse outcomes (i.e. ICU Length of Stay > 15 days or death) when compared to 41 patients treated with non-corticosteroid drugs including antivirals, tocilizumab, azithromycin, and hydroxychloroquine (p-value = 0.0024). Given this unexpected clinical association between post-corticosteroid IL-6 levels and COVID-19 severity, we hypothesized that the Glucocorticoid Receptor (GR or NR3C1) may be coupled to IL-6 expression in specific cell types that govern cytokine release syndrome (CRS). Examining single cell RNA-seq data from bronchoalveolar lavage fluid of severe COVID-19 patients and nearly 2 million human cells from a pan-tissue scan shows that alveolar macrophages, smooth muscle cells, and endothelial cells co-express both NR3C1 and IL-6. The mechanism of Glucocorticoid Receptor (GR) agonists mitigating pulmonary and multi-organ inflammation in some COVID-19 patients with respiratory failure, may be in part due to their successful antagonism of IL-6 production within lung macrophages and vasculature.